If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for mortgage rates to crash back to 2021 levels, I have some hard news: it’s not happening this year. And while you’ve been waiting, the fourplex you were eyeing 24 months ago is almost certainly worth more today than it was when you first walked away from it. That’s not a sales pitch. That’s just what the Long Beach market has done.
I sat down with Phoebe Tudor from Sage Trust Mortgage to break down where rates actually are in 2026, what she’s seeing in real applications, and why the buyers who stopped waiting are the ones building wealth right now. Here’s what every Long Beach investor needs to understand before the next quarter goes by.
The First Quarter of 2026 Told Us Everything
Coming into this year, a lot of people, myself included, expected rates to be lower by now. They aren’t. The Fed has cut rates, but as Phoebe reminded me, Fed cuts don’t translate directly to mortgage rates the way most buyers assume they do. Short-term rates and long-term mortgage rates move on different signals.
What did change in Q1 was buyer behavior. Mortgage applications jumped. Buyers came off the bench. Transactions started closing again — not because rates dropped meaningfully, but because investors finally accepted that pandemic-era rates are gone and they’re not coming back.
That shift in mindset is the real story of 2026 so far.
Where Rates Actually Sit Right Now
Let’s get specific, because vague rate talk helps nobody. Here’s what Phoebe is closing loans at today, based on solid credit and standard down payments:
- Single-family homes and condos: mid to high 5s, leaning closer to the high 5s
- Four-unit investment properties (25% down, 760+ credit, full doc agency loan): low to mid 6s
So if you’re buying a fourplex as a non-owner-occupied investment, expect to pay roughly half a point to three-quarters of a point higher than a single-family rate. That’s the cost of buying cash flow instead of buying a residence. And honestly, given the rents Long Beach fourplexes are pulling right now, that spread is more than justifiable.
The “I’ll Wait for Rates to Drop” Trap
Here’s the math that should sober up anyone still on the sidelines. If you passed on a Long Beach duplex or fourplex 24 months ago because rates were “too high,” that same property has almost certainly appreciated. You didn’t avoid a problem — you paid more for the same asset, and you collected zero rent during the wait.
That’s the part nobody likes to hear. Waiting wasn’t free. Waiting cost you appreciation, cash flow, depreciation write-offs, and principal paydown. In a market like Long Beach, where rent control and limited inventory keep upward pressure on prices, sitting out has a real bill attached.
Real estate is not get rich quick — it’s get rich guaranteed. But only if you actually own the doors. The investors winning right now are the ones who stopped trying to time the rate and started timing the deal.
What Happens When Rates Finally Do Drop
This is the part most buyers don’t think through. When rates eventually come down — and they will, eventually — every buyer who couldn’t qualify at 6.5% suddenly qualifies. The pool of competing buyers expands overnight. We’ve seen this movie before. It’s called bidding wars, and it’s how people end up overpaying by 5 to 10 percent above asking.
If you buy at today’s rate on a property you actually like and can afford, you get two things working in your favor. You lock in a price before the next wave of buyers floods in. And when rates do drop, you refinance. That’s not theory. Phoebe just closed a refinance for a client who bought in January 2025 with 5% down. Sixteen months later, they had picked up roughly 5% in appreciation, their mortgage insurance got reduced, their rate came down, and they cut their monthly payment by $388. The refinance cost them zero out of pocket.
That’s what “marry the property, date the rate” actually looks like in practice.
How to Buy Down Your Rate (And Get Someone Else to Pay for It)
If you do want a better rate today, you have options. Paying a point — also called origination or discount points — costs you 1% of the loan amount up front and typically improves your rate by about a quarter to three-eighths of a percent. Whether that math works for you depends on how long you plan to hold and what your break-even period looks like.
Here’s the move most buyers miss: you can negotiate for the seller to cover part of your closing costs, and that credit can be applied directly to buying down your rate. We do this on multifamily deals all the time. In a market where sellers are no longer getting six offers in a weekend, asking for a closing cost credit isn’t aggressive — it’s just smart structuring. Run the numbers with a lender before you sign, not after.
What This Means for Long Beach Investors Specifically
I’ve been brokering multifamily in Long Beach for over 20 years, and I’ll tell you what I tell every client who walks into our office on East Broadway: the people who own more doors win. Not the people who timed the rate perfectly. Not the people who waited for the headlines to feel safe. The people who acquired property and held it.
Long Beach in 2026 still has the fundamentals that make multifamily work — strong rents, limited new supply, a coastal location, and proximity to the 2028 Olympics tailwind. Fourplexes here continue to be one of the most accessible entry points into commercial-grade investing, which is exactly why our brokerage built itself around them.
If you can afford it, if it fits your strategy, and if the deal pencils, the rate is not the reason to wait. The rate is the variable. The property is the asset. Focus on the asset.
The Bottom Line on Rates in 2026
Phoebe’s honest read: rates likely hold steady through the rest of 2026. No crash. No spike. Just a market that’s normalizing around the reality that 5s and 6s are the new baseline. Buyers are adjusting. Sellers are adjusting. The investors who are adjusting fastest are the ones picking up properties at today’s prices and positioning themselves to refinance when the window opens.
If you’re ready, you can afford it, and you need the tax write-off, get off the bench. That’s the move.
Want to know exactly what you’d qualify for on a Long Beach fourplex or single-family investment in today’s market? Schedule a mortgage consultation with our team and we’ll run real numbers on your scenario — rate, payment, buy-down options, and seller credit strategy. If you’d rather start by talking through the property side first, we can also book an investor consultation and map out your portfolio plan.
Disclaimer: This video and blog are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a loan offer or commitment. All loans are subject to credit approval and property eligibility. Interest rates, loan terms, and conditions may vary and are subject to change without notice. Consult a licensed mortgage professional for personalized advice.
